In my previous blog post What will the world be like in 30 years?, I started exploring the question, What will the world be like in 30 years? That’s a pertinent question for my novel, The Lightning in the Collied Night, because most of the story takes place about 30 years from now. The overall theme of that post was that I believe, at a high level, the world of 2054 won’t look much different from what it does today. But there will be some significant differences as we dig deeper. In this post, I’ll explore what I think the technology of the mid-21st century will be like and how it will compare to the tech of today.
In my previous post, I asked you to pretend you were in 2054. This time, let’s pretend we’ve been whisked back to those halcyon days (?) of 1994. What was the world of technology like then, and how did it compare to today’s tech?
Let’s look first at computers. Today we have powerful laptop, desktop, server, and mainframe computers, and also quantum computers. We even have powerful computers the size of a pad of paper. What about in 1994? Well, there were laptop, desktop, server, and mainframe computers—not nearly as powerful as today’s models, of course. And there were even tablet computers. The first commercially successful tablet, the GriDPad 1900, debuted in 1989. But it weighed more than most of today’s laptops. Then in 1993 Apple came out with the Newton—anyone remember that? Only 1.8 pounds, with a six inch screen. And there were several other tablet-style computers available in 1994, all heavier, less powerful, and less capable than today’s “pads.” As for quantum computers… although a lot of foundational work had been done by 1994, the first tiny quantum computer was still three years away.
How about phones in 1994? There were personal cellular phones, of course, but they were big and clunky. I remember my first cell phone from that era—it resembled a walkie-talkie, with a fixed mast antenna. Flip phones were still two years away. As for smart phones… surprise! There was a smart phone in 1994. IBM started selling the world’s first smart phone (maybe we should call it a “semi-smart” phone), the Simon Personal Communicator, that year. It was no iOS or Android device, but in addition to cellular calling, the touchscreen-equipped Simon could send and receive faxes and emails, and it included an address book, calendar, appointment scheduler, calculator, and world time clock, and apps such as maps, stock reports and news.
In the consumer electronics world of 1994, it would be a few years before DVDs overtook VCRs. How about streaming? Not yet. But CD players had become more popular than cassette tapes (although a new 2001 MY car I bought had a cassette player) and had pretty much replaced vinyl (which has, ironically, has made a comeback in recent years). If you wanted a TV in 1994 and didn’t want to break the bank, it was probably a big, heavy CRT box. Flat-screen TVs were available, but were either huge (rear projection) or extremely expensive (wall-mounted LCD TVs debuted in 1992).
How about transportation? The first modern, mass-produced EV, the GM EV1, was still two years away in 1994, but EVs have been in use since the early 1800s, and in 1900 one-third of all vehicles on the road were EVs. None could use the Tesla charging network, unfortunately. 😉 Gas-electric hybrids debuted in the late 1800s, but the first mass-produced hybrid, the Prius, was still three years away in 1994. How about autonomous vehicles? They existed in 1994! They could even drive for over 1,000 kilometers through Paris traffic. One noticeable difference between personal transportation in 1994 and 2024 is that there’s a lot more SUVs on the road now than 30 years ago, and a lot fewer minivans. As for aircraft, ships, and trains, there’s been incremental improvements since 1994, but nothing revolutionary. What about space transportation? That will be the subject of another blog post!
Let’s return from our trip back in time to 1994 (be sure to check for crushed butterflies on your shoes) and summarize what we observed. With few exceptions, all the technologies we reviewed that are in use today were also available 30 years ago—albeit in a much less mature, capable state, in most cases.
Which brings me to how I chose to depict technology in my book. In almost all cases, I portray the tech of 2054 to be an incremental improvement over what we have today. So there’s still smartphones, but they’re not called “iPhones” and they can do some things today’s smartphones can’t. Same with tablet computers. Cellular networks have advanced way beyond 5G. In personal transportation, EVs and autonomous driving are nearly ubiquitous. As for TVs… there’s still videos, but also something much more advanced.
“But wait a minute!” you say. “What about AI? What will that look like 30 years from now?” Good question! And an important one for my book, as AI plays a key role. In fact, one of its more interesting characters (I think) is an AI. Here again, as with other technologies, my position is that AI will be similar to the AI of today… but much more capable, “human-like”, and ubiquitous. And what about… more dangerous? Many people today feel threatened by AI. Are those fears justified? I give my two cents on that… in my book. 🙂
Up next, in Part 3 of “What will the world be like in 30 years?”… the environment.
